Key Takeaways: • Tesla shares soared 7.62% (2.43σ) following strong performance amid bullish sentiment in tech. • US CCC corporate yield dropped 33 bp (-3.15σ), signaling increased investor confidence in high-yield debt. • NASDAQ composite climbed 1.59% as tech stocks rallied, with Microsoft up 4.61% amid AI-driven enthusiasm. --- Recommendations: • Consider adding tech exposure — with strong earnings driving a renewed bullish sentiment, stocks like Microsoft and Tesla may continue to outperform. • Reduce exposure to energy sectors — energy stocks fell 2.26%, reflecting weak crude performance amid geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices. • Look to invest in high-yield corporate bonds — the fall in CCC yields suggests an easing of financial stress and improved risk appetite in credit markets. --- Today’s session witnessed a notable risk-on tone, largely propelled by a pronounced rally in tech stocks amidst improving investor sentiment. Key drivers included robust performances from major players like Tesla, which jumped 7.62% and lifted the NASDAQ composite by 1.59%, indicating strong demand for technology shares. Notably, Microsoft also surged 4.61%, buoyed by optimism surrounding AI developments, aligning with recent news from Yahoo reporting expansion in AI infrastructure. Additionally, news from Cointelegraph hinted at potential for further gains in Bitcoin due to bullish price action, enhancing overall market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies and tech-heavy equities. The economic calendar showed a range of steady economic data with the Empire State Manufacturing Index expected at 0.3, reflecting stability in the manufacturing sector. However, market participants are looking ahead to the upcoming jobless claims and retail sales numbers, anticipated to provide further insight into consumer resilience as well as potential implications for Fed policy. The resilience in economic readings helps buttress the ongoing strength in equities. In the bond markets, we observed significant tightening in credit spreads as the US CCC corporate yield plummeted by 33 bp, highlighting a shift in risk perception favoring junk bonds amidst heightened investor confidence. This aligns with the liquidity regime signal showing improving conditions, with positive momentum of +0.324 and accelerating improvement of +0.1420. Such trends support the risk-on environment observed in equities, especially notable in tech sectors like consumer discretionary, which advanced 2.20%. The liquidity tailwinds, characterized by lower real yields, were reflective in the broader trajectory of fixed income. The energy sector, in contrast, struggled, experiencing a 2.26% decline amidst softening crude oil prices, which fell 0.62%. Negative sentiment towards energy amidst geopolitical tensions around Iran—as reported by Reuters—blunted sector gains as concerns about supply disruptions weighed on prices. This serves as an important dislocation for investors to monitor, particularly as uncertainty remains over the region's geopolitical implications. In summary, the current macro regime remains categorized as "Goldilocks," with stable inflation, strong growth, and accommodative policy. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate indicates an annualized growth rate of 1.31% for Q1 2026, supporting the case for growth resilience. Looking ahead, the market's optimistic risk tone amid technology's renaissance, coupled with easing credit spreads, underscores potential investment opportunities particularly in sectors benefiting from technological advancements. Investors are advised to keep an eye on broader economic indicators as well as forthcoming earnings from major firms that could influence market direction substantially. As we look forward, upcoming calendar releases include crucial joblessness claims data and producer price indices, which are likely to inform market sentiment throughout the week. Furthermore, the Fed funds futures indicate a strong probability (83.4%) of maintaining the current target range, suggesting an easing in the near-term rate hike expectations, supporting continued bullish momentum in equities.

• S&P 500 gained 81.14 points, or 1.18% (+2.66σ), buoyed by tech stocks and lower inflation signals. • WTI crude oil fell 6.19% as geopolitical tensions escalate, pressuring energy stocks and contributing to deflation in commodities. • Cocoa surged 7.65%, reflecting supply concerns amidst geopolitical instability, marking significant demand recovery. Recommendations • Consider long positions in technology stocks like Meta and Amazon, which have shown strong earnings potential amid rising market optimism. • Explore short positions in energy stocks as crude oil's steep decline suggests further weakness in the sector. • Monitor Eurozone growth outlooks; upcoming ECB meetings may bring volatility in European equities and currency pairs. U.S. equity markets enjoyed a strong rally today, with the S&P 500 closing up 1.18% amid renewed investor optimism following encouraging inflation data. The macro sentiment was largely shaped by reports from major earnings releases, particularly from tech giants. Amazon’s announcement of its $11.57 billion acquisition of satellite service provider Globalstar helped propel its shares by 3.81%, further boosting the overall tech sector, which accounted for one of the largest absolute gains today. Meta Platforms also reported a notable increase of 4.41%, building on the tech sector’s rally amid recession fears that seem to subside. The economic calendar today provided critical insights, particularly with the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) rising 1.1% against a forecast of 0.4%, signaling potential stability in inflation metrics. This positive inflation outlook aligns with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW estimate projecting a robust 1.31% growth rate for Q1 2026, reinforcing the “Goldilocks” macro regime classification characterized by strong growth, stable inflation, and an accommodating policy stance. These factors collectively curb investor fears of a recession, prompting greater risk-taking evident in today’s market performance. In fixed income markets, U.S. Treasury yields saw slight declines, with the 2-year yield falling 3 basis points to 3.78%. However, the broader liquidity picture appears more complex; our proprietary Liquidity Regime Signal indicates a negative momentum at -0.357, reflecting tightening conditions. Although the negative acceleration suggests a deceleration in this deterioration, heightened concerns about geopolitical risks and supply-chain disruptions reflected in rising inflation expectations could pose ongoing challenges to fixed income and equities alike. On the commodities front, WTI crude oil tumbled by 6.19% following intensified geopolitical pressures, particularly the U.S. blockade of shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz—this move is anticipated to influence global supply chains adversely. As energy prices contract, today’s developments may prompt further investor rotation out of energy stocks, which already underperformed with a sector decline of 2.03%. Contrarily, cocoa prices surged by 7.65%, driven by heightened demand and supply concerns related to geopolitical factors affecting production regions, marking a substantial shift in commodity sentiment. In the foreign exchange and crypto markets, the U.S. dollar index dipped by 0.32%, influenced by risk-on sentiment and the equity markets’ rally. The bullish momentum in cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin up 1.16% today, suggests a favorable environment for risk-asset capital flows. The conviction in broader market dynamics implies that investors may find value in equities sustained by a steady macro outlook, as seen in others like Nvidia (+3.80%) and Alphabet (+3.61%). Looking ahead, the upcoming economic calendar provides critical evaluations such as the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Beige Book, slated for release tomorrow. Market participants should closely monitor how these indicators may reshape growth expectations and affect economic sentiment moving forward. As earnings announcements unfold, many companies—such as Bank of America and Netflix—are also set to provide insights pivotal for investment decisions. Overall, the current landscape hinges on sustaining growth amid varying inflation signals and global volatile conditions, maintaining a cautiously optimistic bias.

• S&P/ASX 200 surged 4.44% (5.66σ) on strong sentiment from Australia’s resilient data reports and easing tensions in the region. • Nikkei 225 rose 7.15% (4.87σ), reflecting market relief amid adjusted expectations for US-Iran relations and robust corporate earnings in Japan. • US CCC corporate yields rose 11 bp as risk premiums increased, indicating a shift in sentiment towards higher credit risk amid global tensions. Recommendations • Consider tactical longs in Japanese equities — stable fundamentals and easing geopolitical tensions support growth. • Evaluate selective duration plays in corporate bonds with wider spreads to capitalize on income potential amidst rising yields. • Look for opportunities in commodities — strong demand signals in agriculture, especially coffee, may indicate bullish conditions. Global markets experienced a robust and risk-on session today, driven by news of strengthening US-Iran relations and resilient economic indicators from major economies. Reports indicate a renewed optimism about a potential ceasefire in the region, which buoyed investor sentiment, particularly in equities. Notably, the S&P/ASX 200 jumped 4.44% (5.66σ), and the Nikkei 225 soared 7.15% (4.87σ), with traders encouraged by improved risk assessments and vigorous corporate earnings reports in Japan. Microsoft also contributed to the technology sector's rally, climbing 3.64% amid a broad-based recovery in tech equities. Today's economic calendar featured several key releases, including the Existing Home Sales figure in the US, which edged lower to 4.07 million from a previous 4.09 million, reflecting slight cooling in the housing market amidst rising borrowing costs. However, this did not dampen overall market optimism, as equities held strong gains in anticipation of further economic stability. The resilience in housing permits and industrial production data from earlier in the month also supported the broader growth narrative. US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 30-year yield increasing 2.0 bp to 4.91%, while shorter maturities also moved higher, reflecting market adjustments to a potential shift in Fed policy, driven by the backdrop of improving economic data and credit spreads. The increase in US CCC corporate yields by 11 bp signaled an uptick in perceived credit risk as market participants adjusted their expectations on the safety of riskier assets amid lingering geopolitical concerns. This was articulated by the recent volatility across sectors, particularly in energy and commodities. In the equity markets, the technology sector outperformed, evidenced by significant moves from major players such as Microsoft (+3.64%) and Alphabet (+1.28%). The Russell 2000 Index also gained 1.52%, suggesting a positive tone across small-cap stocks. In contrast, some sectors struggled, including utilities and consumer staples, indicating a possible rotation by investors into higher-risk assets as global tensions decreased. Turning to commodities, the backdrop of geopolitical improvements buoyed oil prices. Brent crude oil rose 3.53%, reflecting supply concerns amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and the apparent failure of US-Iran negotiations, yet sentiment remained generally stable. Agriculture saw strong performance as well, with coffee prices climbing 4.94%, signaling robust demand conditions. Such price movements are corroborated by unusual moves like the notable rise in the cocoa market and aluminum, reinforcing bullish commodity sentiment. Our Liquidity Regime Signal indicates that conditions are deteriorating, with a composite reading of +2.584, but with negative momentum, suggesting that expansionary conditions might be unstable. This decline indicates a need for cautious optimism; while present market setups indicate relative strength, the underlying liquidity tightening could pose risks for near-term momentum. As markets look towards the upcoming earnings calendar, notable reports from JPMorgan and Johnson & Johnson on April 14 could serve as critical sentiments gauges. With the Fed funds futures indicating a 93.7% probability for a 3.50-3.75% target range by the next FOMC meeting, expectations surrounding these earnings reports will shape rate cut/hike narratives in the face of Fed policy. Overall, sentiment veers cautiously optimistic, yet the market must be cognizant of underlying credit risks and geopolitical developments, which may catalyze volatility ahead as the macro landscape continues to evolve.

• Nifty 50 gained 3.51% (3.73σ) as investors responded to easing geopolitical tensions around Iran. • VIX declined 7.37% (2.4σ), reflecting reduced investor fear amid stabilizing market conditions. • Heating oil dropped 4.93% as crude oil prices declined sharply due to demand concerns. Recommendations • Consider adding long positions in Indian equities – Nifty 50's positive momentum could indicate further gains. • Look to reduce exposure to energy stocks amid declining oil prices impacting sector performance. • Short WTI crude – demand fears amid geopolitical tensions weigh on prices, suggesting further downside ahead. Following a mixed session on Friday, U.S. equity markets showed resilience against external pressures, countering early intraday declines as investors digested significant geopolitical updates and inflation data. Notable headlines reported by Reuters indicate a ceasefire towards U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, which helped push the Nifty 50 index up 3.51% (3.73σ), the Asian markets ultimately closing positively with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.53%. This dynamic bolstered risk sentiment in the broader market. Concurrently, the VIX fell 7.37% (2.4σ) and closed below 20, signaling decreased volatility expectations. Today's economic calendar released surprising inflation data, notably the U.S. CPI, which spiked by 0.87% m/m against a forecast of 1.0%, indicating upward pressure on consumer prices compared to the previous month’s 0.3% rise. The headline CPI year-on-year surged to 3.4% from 2.4%. This data suggests persistent inflation amid geopolitical unrest; however, the market reaction remained muted, suggesting the price increases were anticipated. This aligns with the Fed's likely path as per CME FedWatch probabilities, which imply near certainty of holding rates steady within the next two meetings. In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields remained unchanged across the curve, keeping the 10-year note at 4.29%. Despite no movement in yields, corporate bond spreads reflected a risk-on tone, with high-yield Option-Adjusted Spreads (OAS) tightening by 4 bps to 2.90%. Notably, CCC corporate yields fell 8 bps to 13.34%, suggesting that investors are favoring riskier debt in the current climate, which can be attributed to improving liquidity conditions as reflected in our proprietary liquidity regime signal, currently sitting at +2.425, yet with deteriorating momentum suggesting caution. In equity performance, Nvidia led the tech sector with a gain of 2.57%, buoyed by positive sentiment around its AI capabilities as discussed in Yahoo Finance. Conversely, the energy sector faced pressures with the S&P 500 energy sector declining by 1.48%, driven by a 2.71% drop in WTI crude prices. The macro backdrop of geopolitical tension, especially regarding Iran's potential disruptions in global oil supplies and the subsequent uncertainty surrounding oil demand, contributed significantly to this shift. Additionally, the significant drop in heating oil by 4.93% intensifies the bearish outlook on energy prices. With regards to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin saw a boost of 0.99% as optimism proved resilient despite rocky market conditions. As Cointelegraph reports suggest, a resurgence in whale activity points to an upcoming breakout potential aimed at the supply zone near $88,000. Activity in other coins like Ethereum and Solana also gained traction, influenced by broader risk appetite. Assessing the liquidity regime, the current conditions suggest tightening despite today's positive close. The composite liquidity signal indicates firepower for a bullish phase yet the acceleration metrics reflect potential headwinds that could destabilize this positive momentum. Investors should hence be watchful of upcoming economic data next week (e.g., the PCE price index) as potential indicators of consumer sentiment and inflationary trajectories. The market tone remains cautiously optimistic as commodities reflect uncertainty in energy dynamics and equities signal that positive macro conditions may still persist. However, as geopolitical tensions continue to evolve, investors are advised to adopt tactical positioning that accommodates potential volatility swings ahead.

## WEEKLY REVIEW: April 6 - April 10, 2026 ### Key Developments: - Geopolitical Easing: U.S.-Iran ceasefire catalyzed a risk-on sentiment, leading to significant equity gains, notably in technology stocks. - Inflationary Signals: CPI data showed a surprising increase, impacting bond yields and raising questions on Fed policy direction. - Volatility Declines: A substantial drop in the VIX indicates reduced market fears, with risk appetite returning to major sectors. - Commodity Pressure: Sharp declines in crude oil prices raise concerns about demand, significantly affecting related sectors. ### Weekly Narrative: This week was characterized by heightened volatility and rapid shifts in market sentiment, driven primarily by geopolitical developments and inflationary pressures. Monday began with a notable surge in lean hogs as strong consumer demand metrics fueled bullish expectations in agricultural commodities, signaling robust consumption patterns amidst rising prices. Concurrently, Bitcoin's rise of 4.55% reflected a pattern of rotation into digital assets against the backdrop of increasing inflation fears tied to geopolitical unrest, particularly concerning Iran. Throughout the week, volatility remained a central theme. Tuesday’s performance reflected a cautious atmosphere as the VIX rose slightly amidst falling mega-cap stocks, pushing investors into a risk-off posture. Durable Goods Orders came in unexpectedly strong, yet the overall narrative was tempered by concerns over geopolitical tensions, particularly President Trump's impending deadline on U.S.-Iran negotiations. By Wednesday, the landscape shifted dramatically as a ceasefire was announced between the U.S. and Iran, alleviating immediate geopolitical fears. WTI crude oil prices suffered immensely, plummeting by 12.93%—an unprecedented move with a z-score of -5.23σ—signifying a strong market reaction to improved supply prospects. The resulting risk-on sentiment led the tech sector to rally significantly, evidenced by the VIX dropping 18.39%, suggesting an easing of investor anxieties. The market continued to respond positively on Thursday, propelled by robust earnings from major tech firms and a favorable reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached record highs, indicating strong growth prospects amid ongoing interest in AI technology. This momentum persisted as equity indices surged, with the S&P 500's upward trajectory underpinned by significant moves in mega-cap stocks like Amazon, contributing to a broader narrative of optimistic recovery. The week culminated on Friday with the release of the CPI data revealing a 3.4% year-on-year increase, a notable uptick from the previous month. This inflation print raised essential questions regarding the Federal Reserve's potential policy decisions. Although this data indicated sustained inflationary pressures, the market's muted response underscored a prevailing sentiment that these increases had been somewhat anticipated. Consequently, Treasury yields remained stable near recent lows, aligning with the expectations surrounding the Fed's stance. Throughout the week, commodities presented a mixed picture. While crude prices fell amidst easing geopolitical tensions, heating oil faced considerable pressure, reflecting market concerns about future energy demand. The strong performance of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, driven by technical buying and optimism surrounding macroeconomic dynamics, added a layer of complexity to the overall market narrative. The liquidity regime indicated increasingly stringent conditions, yet became more positive towards the week's conclusion, hinting at potential stabilization in risk-on trades. The overall financial landscape remains cautious as prevailing geopolitical factors linger, with investor focus shifting to upcoming economic indicators. ### Week Ahead As we look to the upcoming week, key catalysts will include the Core PCE Price Index, set to be released shortly after consumer prices, which will be crucial in shaping Fed expectations and the broader market outlook. Additionally, attention will be given to April earnings reports, particularly from technology firms, given their significant influence on market sentiment. Investors should also remain alert to any escalations in geopolitical tensions that could potentially disrupt the currently optimistic paradigm, alongside closely monitoring shifts in the liquidity regime for signs of changing risk appetites. Expect volatility to persist as market participants navigate these pivotal economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

Key Takeaways: • 10-year Treasury yields fell 5.0 bp to 4.29% (1.15σ), reflecting softening growth data and risk-on sentiment. • The VIX plummeted 4.74 to 21.04 (-18.39%) as equities surged, driven by mega-cap tech performance. • The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached record highs, underpinned by strong earnings and tech optimism. Recommendations • Consider long positions in equities, particularly in mega-cap tech stocks like Amazon and Meta, as favorable AI infrastructure deals support growth narratives. • Monitor Treasury yields; a further drop could create more attractive entry points for duration-sensitive assets, particularly if inflation risks abate. • Hedge against potential volatility spikes by selectively targeting VIX futures, which are now at historically higher levels post-drop, for opportunities in risk-off transitions. The market closed on a notably positive note on Thursday, with significant upward movements in major indices, particularly driven by the technology sector. Mega-cap stocks like Amazon surged 5.60%, supported by a bullish sentiment surrounding AI investments, following Amazon CEO Andy Jassy's assurance that AI investments would continue unabated (Yahoo). Meta Platforms also experienced a robust 2.61% gain after announcing a $21 billion partnership with CoreWeave to leverage AI cloud capabilities (Yahoo). This bullish momentum helped the Wilshire 5000 index climb by 2.52%, alongside stronger risk sentiment showcased by a notable decrease in the VIX, which dropped dramatically by 18.39%, highlighting market confidence. The economic calendar revealed mixed signals, showcasing the Core PCE Price Index stabilizing at 0.4%, matching expectations, while initial jobless claims rose significantly to 219,000 from an expected 210,000—highlighting potential weakness in the labor market (also influenced by slower growth as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate was revised lower to 1.31% for Q1 2026 from 0.70%). This divergence in labor market data and growth indicators has created room for debate on the Fed's next steps, with CME FedWatch implying a high likelihood (88.6%) of maintaining the current 3.50-3.75% rate range in the upcoming May meeting. In the bond market, yield movements reflected a softening macro outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5.0 bp to 4.29%, driven by the corresponding shifts in inflation expectations as 5-year breakeven rates declined by 5.0 bp (2.56%). The spread between high-yield and investment-grade corporate bonds also compressed, with high-yield option-adjusted spreads narrowing by 18.0 bp (-5.77%), highlighting increased investor confidence in lower-rated credits and aligning with the overall risk-on sentiment. The notable unusual moves of the session included a dramatic drop in the VIX, which plunged 18.39% indicating a shift in market sentiment towards risk aversion, and a significant contraction in high-yield spreads, highlighting the search for yield amid favorable risk appetite. Such dynamics suggest a potential inflection point wherein investors are becoming more willing to accept risk in pursuit of returns, particularly within equities and corporate bonds. On the commodities front, energy prices were mixed with WTI crude oil increasing by 2.03% to $98.51, possibly influenced by geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran's control over the Hormuz Strait and resulting supply concerns (CNBC). Meanwhile, precious metals like gold gained 0.86%, reflecting ongoing investor interest in safe havens as fears of inflation remain present despite recent data shifts. Looking ahead, investors should be aware of upcoming economic releases slated for Friday, particularly the consumer price index (CPI) data, which is anticipated to play a critical role in shaping inflation expectations and the Fed's future policy decisions. The consensus forecast of a 1.0% increase in CPI m/m and 3.4% y/y will likely provide significant market direction, especially if actual results diverge meaningfully from expectations. Overall, the tone remains cautiously optimistic, supported by improving macro conditions; however, attention should focus on any potential shifts from the upcoming inflation data and volatility developments as we navigate these evolving market dynamics.

• WTI crude oil plunged 12.93% (-5.23σ) on ease of geopolitical tensions amid a US-Iran ceasefire. • The VIX tumbled 18.39% (-4.74σ), signaling reduced volatility and increased risk appetite across equities. • The kospi surged 6.87% (+5.04σ) as South Korean tech stocks rallied on optimism from the easing tensions. Recommendations • Consider adding energy shorts—crude oil prices may continue to pressure as sentiment stabilizes post-ceasefire. • Look for upside in equities—rebounding tech stocks suggest a possible further market rally, especially in growth sectors. • Monitor inflation-linked assets—rising breakevens and falling real yields might support gold and other commodities. Market Summary The markets experienced a notable rally on Wednesday, April 8, 2026, driven primarily by the easing of geopolitical tensions following a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which resulted in a pronounced risk-on sentiment across various asset classes. The VIX dropped 18.39% (-4.74σ), indicating a significant reduction in market volatility and reflecting traders’ renewed confidence. Major equity indices surged, with the Russell 2000 up 2.97%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 2.85%, and the NASDAQ Composite rising 2.80%. In commodities, however, WTI crude oil prices tumbled 12.93% as the ceasefire led to expectations of improved oil supply conditions. Headlines today highlighted the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, which underpinned a relief rally across equities as investors saw decreased immediate geopolitical risks (Reuters). In tech, Meta Platforms shone, advancing 6.50% after launching its new AI tool, "Muse Spark," which suggests a strong response from investors in the tech sector amid a burgeoning focus on AI innovations (Yahoo). Additionally, the geopolitical thaw correlated positively with U.S. equity performance and a significant drop in oil prices, particularly as traders anticipated a stabilization of energy prices post-deal. Economic Data Calendar Integration Today's economic calendar featured essential releases, although none appeared to substantially impact the session's upbeat tone. The FOMC Meeting Minutes revealed a dovish stance consistent with market expectations, suggesting that the Federal Reserve remains cautious about tightening policies amid mixed economic signals. The Atlanta Fed GDPNOW's real-time estimate for Q1 2026 GDP has held steady at 1.32% (annualized), which aligns with the overall expansionary environment, although it indicates growth is still modest. Additionally, crude oil inventories posted a decrease of 5.5M barrels, though this was overshadowed by the broader geopolitical developments and consumer sentiment shifts. US Rates, Credit, Yield Curve U.S. Treasury yields fell across the curve, particularly in the shorter tenors, with the 3-year yield down 6 bp to 3.82%. The decline in yields aligns with the positive risk-on sentiment seen in equities, suggesting that investors are favoring equities over bonds in the current environment. Corporate credit spreads moved wider, as indicated by a 7 bp increase in the high-yield OAS to 3.12%, reflecting the jitteriness in credit markets amid fluctuating oil prices and concerns around earnings growth for energy-related sectors. Equities, Sectors, Single Stocks Today's standout movers included Meta Platforms, which gained 6.50% amid enthusiasm for its new AI products. Alphabet increased by 3.88%, capitalizing on advancements in its Waymo service (Yahoo). The energy sector notably lagged, declining 3.51% as oil prices plummeted, exemplifying the direct impact of geopolitical factors on sector performance. Industrials and materials rallied strongly, increasing by 3.75% and 3.33%, respectively, likely reflecting increased investor appetite as risk-on sentiment takes hold across the broader market. FX, Commodities, Crypto In currency markets, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.64%, aligning with risk-on sentiment as traders reduced dollar positions amid improved macroeconomic outlooks. Commodities were mixed; while energy prices suffered, precious metals like palladium surged 6.99%, indicating a potential safe-haven shift, while the weaker oil prices positively influenced agricultural commodities such as cocoa (+5.74%) which saw a strong rally as supply concerns eased. Bitcoin exhibited resilience, closing up 2.96%, driven by technical buying around support levels as traders anticipates further upward price movements. Liquidity Regime The liquidity regime signal, as of April 6, indicates deteriorating conditions with negative momentum (-0.902) and accelerating deterioration (-0.0211). This suggests potential tightening across the board. The current regime remains classified as "Expansion / Hot / Dovish", mixing growth and inflation signals amidst dovish monetary policy expectations. While risks persist, the heightened liquidity may support equities in the short term unless deteriorating conditions override the current bullishness. Prediction Markets & Forward View Polymarket data highlights a 97.6% probability of the Fed maintaining rates at 3.50-3.75% through May. This market pricing suggests a strong consensus on a dovish stance from the Fed amidst key upcoming economic releases, including the Core PCE Price Index and Final GDP readings on April 9, which could solidify current market views. Traders should keep an eye on evolving sentiment from inflation data as it will critically influence monetary policy perceptions going forward. The tone remains risk-on as investors bask in the euphoria of geopolitical thawing and rosy technological advancements, despite underlying concerns of inflationary pressures.

• US Treasury yields fell slightly across the curve, with the 30-year yield down 2 bp to 4.89% as markets continue to digest macroeconomic signals and geopolitical risks, particularly heightened tensions surrounding Iran. • Consumer discretionary and staples sectors struggled, notably dragging down mega-cap stocks like Apple (down 2.07%) and Tesla (down 1.75%), in an environment where the VIX rose, suggesting increased volatility concerns. • The unusual move in cocoa prices (-6.24%, z=-2.97σ) indicates acute supply concerns, which alongside lower energy prices—Brent crude fell 3.59%—strikes a complex balance in commodity markets. Recommendations • Consider adding exposure to high-yield corporate bonds as spreads tighten significantly, suggesting improved risk appetite despite the geopolitical backdrop. • Look to establish short positions in consumer staples as the sector underperforms amid risk-off sentiment, particularly in light of slowing growth indicators. • Monitor the upcoming CPI print scheduled for April 10th; a higher reading could recalibrate market expectations regarding the Fed's path and lead to further bond market volatility. As markets reacted to a blend of global headlines and economic indicators, investor sentiment appeared cautious. News dominated by geopolitical tensions, particularly President Trump’s looming deadline regarding Iran, pressured market performance. Notably, Reuters reported that “Wall Street off session lows as Trump's Iran deadline looms,” reflecting how these tensions have set a cautionary tone across risk assets. The VIX, a gauge for market volatility, rose by 1.61%, reflecting an uptick in fears of potential escalations. As geopolitical uncertainties linger, investors are calling for protective measures against potential market disruptions. From the economic data perspective, the calendar featured several noteworthy prints. Durable Goods Orders came in at 0.0%, contrasting sharply with expectations of -1.1%, indicating steadiness in business investment despite broader economic slowdowns. Core Durable Goods Orders also slightly exceeded expectations at 0.4%, up from a forecast of 0.5%, though it still suggests potential weakness. These mixed signals regarding growth elevate emphasis on the upcoming Q1 GDP release, where the Atlanta Fed GDPNOW estimate sits at 1.32%, hinting at tepid expansion which complicates the growth narrative. In the Treasury market, yields exhibited minor declines, with the 30-year and 20-year bonds each trading down 2 basis points, in contrast to a backdrop of stable policy rates. The Fed funds futures indicate a high probability (96.2%) of maintaining rates in the 3.50-3.75% range through May, suggesting a dovish environment remains intact. This aligns with our liquidity regime signal, which shows deteriorating conditions with a negative momentum of -1.111. These signals, combined with the broader market conditions, suggest that while rates are stable, tight credit spreads and rising inflation expectations through high yield spreads indicate a complex risk tone. Equity markets displayed a mixed bag; while indices like the Wilshire 5000 and the Russell 2000 advanced slightly, the Dow Jones fell 0.18%, weighed down by consumer discretionary laggards like Tesla and Apple. Notably, Alphabet gained 1.82%, potentially buoyed by ongoing interest in AI capabilities—a narrative reiterated by Yahoo Finance highlighting Anthropic’s growth and partnerships with major tech firms. Sectors that fared poorly included consumer staples and discretionary, down 1.69% and 1.16%, respectively, signaling shifting consumer sentiment as inflation concerns challenge spending patterns. In commodities, energy prices faced downward pressure as Brent crude oil declined by 3.59% amidst expectations for continued volatility in supply chains affected by geopolitical tensions, as reported by multiple sources. Interestingly, cocoa prices fell dramatically by 6.24% as reported earlier, likely exacerbated by fears of supply disruptions, underlining how interconnected commodity moves can reflect broader market anxieties. Conversely, gold saw a modest uptick, rising 1.05% as a traditional safe haven, indicative of concerns over stability in risk assets. Looking forward, attention turns to the upcoming economic calendar, notably the closely watched CPI data on April 10th. Analysts are forecasting a rise in inflation metrics which could further influence the Fed's trajectory on rates, thus reshaping market dynamics. Additionally, with upcoming earnings reports from key players, including Delta Air Lines and Hess Corporation, the markets remain poised for potential shifts based on corporate performance amid a tightening economic backdrop. Overall, as geopolitical risks loom large, investor sentiment reflects a cautiously risk-off posture amid mixed economic signals, emphasizing the importance of navigating the forthcoming key macro indicators and earnings reports for clearer guidance.

• Lean hogs surged 19.04% (7.00σ) following strong consumer demand data amidst rising meat prices. • Bitcoin jumped 4.55% (1.62σ) as strong buying pressure emerged over heightened inflation fears related to geopolitical tensions. • US 3-year Treasury yields increased by 6.0 bp (1.57%), reflecting renewed concerns over rising rates amidst a mixed macro backdrop. Recommendations • Consider positioning long in commodities — particularly lean hogs — as demand remains robust in the face of rising prices. • Monitor Bitcoin and Ethereum as inflation-linked assets; both show promising upward momentum. • Look into Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) as yields increase, indicating market expectations for inflation might rise. Markets exhibited a mixed tone on Monday, April 6, driven by increasing Treasury yields and volatile commodity prices amidst geopolitical concerns. Headlines centered on escalating tensions in Iran generated heightened market sensitivity, notably as investors digested remarks from former President Trump about potential military actions. According to Reuters, tensions around Iran's influence in the Strait of Hormuz and its resultant implications for global oil supplies weighed heavily on market sentiment. Wall Street remained cautiously optimistic, reflecting a baseline demand for equities, as exemplified by the S&P 500 rising 29.14 points (+0.44%) and the NASDAQ adding 117.16 points (+0.54%). Today's economic calendar featured the ISM Services PMI, which printed at 54.8, significantly lower than the previous month's 56.1, reflecting a cooling service sector. This slow down may suggest an economic environment where consumer spending is waning due to inflationary pressures. Investors appeared to brace for this reality, leading to a marginal dip in the broader market, despite key sectors including consumer discretionary and technology showing resilience with gains of 1.16% and 0.58%, respectively. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates a resilient quarterly growth rate of 1.64%, further complicating the macroeconomic narrative as tight labor markets continue to signal strength in underlying economic conditions. Treasury yields moved higher across the curve, with the 3-year yield climbing by 6.0 bp to 3.88%. The market perceived rising inflation expectations amidst fluctuating geopolitical tensions. Inflation breakevens continued to tick up, with 5-year breakeven inflation rising 4.0 bp to 2.61% and the 10-year breakeven inflation increasing 2.0 bp to 2.36%. This uptick reflects market sentiment regarding rising prices and generated interest in duration-sensitive assets, further complicating the interest rate outlook ahead of the Fed’s next meetings, where probability models suggest a high likelihood of maintaining the current rate range between 3.50-3.75%. Interestingly, unusual price moves were exhibited by lean hogs and Bitcoin. Lean hogs saw a remarkable rise of 19.04% — a significant outlier with a z-score of 7.00σ, indicating a strong demand dynamic that may ultimately support the broader commodities market. Conversely, Bitcoin gained 4.55% amid rising geopolitical tensions, suggesting a flight into digital assets viewed by some investors as an alternative inflation hedge. This aligns with the observed drop in traditional assets, as Bitcoin's recent trends appear to benefit from both a robust demand narrative and macroeconomic fear surrounding potential inflation spikes. The liquidity regime signal indicates a deterioration in conditions, with a negative momentum of -1.111, implying tighter financial conditions ahead. This could tie into the risk-off sentiment prevalent in the banking sector reported by JPMorgan, which cautioned that the ongoing political strife in Iran might contribute further to rising inflation and rates. As central bank policy remains closely tied to inflation data, observing upcoming economic releases—including Thursday's Core PCE Price Index and CPI—will be critical for positioning in both fixed income and equities. Looking ahead, the calendar features key economic data releases that could influence market dynamics, including the Core Durable Goods Orders on Tuesday, April 7, and the inflation prints towards the end of the week. The mixed signals from today's session suggest a ‘stay-the-course’ approach until clear directionality in economic fundamentals arises, while also keeping an eye on geopolitical developments that could prompt volatile market shifts. Overall, the tone remains cautiously optimistic, albeit underpinned by significant uncertainty in the macro landscape.

WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW: March 30, 2026 - April 3, 2026 Key Developments: - Geopolitical tensions centered on Iran led to heightened volatility in both energy and equity markets, resulting in a dramatic 14.40% drop in Brent crude on April 1, followed by a rebound of 12.75% in WTI crude on April 2. - Economic data indicated softening growth, with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change declining to 41,000 and the ISM Manufacturing PMI marginally missing expectations, leading to a 9 bp reduction in the 10-year Treasury yield. - Volatility measures reflected shifting risk sentiments, as the VIX fell 13.01% amid a risk-on tone on the back of geopolitical optimism, despite pressures in the technology sector, primarily driven by Tesla's disappointing sales. - A mixed labor market report contributed to ongoing uncertainties about Federal Reserve policy, with jobless claims reducing slightly, but the U-6 unemployment rate improving dramatically. --- This week, market narratives were intricately woven around the themes of geopolitical tensions and evolving economic signals, creating a complex backdrop for traders to navigate. Initial tremors were felt on April 1 when Brent crude oil experienced its steepest drop in several months, a startling 14.40% decline attributed to escalating concerns surrounding supply dynamics amidst the ongoing conflict in Iran. As financial markets digested this development, investors shifted to a risk-on sentiment due in part to President Trump’s comments suggesting de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, briefly reviving hope around stability in energy markets. The notable responses across asset classes were illustrated in many directions. Despite the calamity in crude prices, the technology sector forged ahead, buoyed by strong performances from mega-cap stocks such as Alphabet, which climbed 3.13% on encouraging AI development news. In stark contrast, the broader energy sector met headwinds, exacerbated by the evident supply issues that sent the WTI crude down 14.40% on April 1. This sector's reaction underlined the significant bifurcation observed within commodities this week, showcasing the profound impact of geopolitical developments and market sentiment on prices. As the week progressed, a counter-response in crude oil prices saw WTI surging by 12.75% on April 2, reiterating the precarious balance between geopolitical developments and domestic supply concerns. This increase renewed interest in energy stocks; nevertheless, the performance was not uniform. The agricultural commodities faced a whip of volatility as lean hog futures, after a significant surge, dropped sharply by 14.12%, prompted by market assessments of oversupply. Managing this divergent volatility in the agricultural and energy spheres highlighted the need for strategic positioning to mitigate risks. From an economic lens, the data released this week painted a picture of a slowing economy. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed a disappointing growth of just 41,000 jobs compared to the anticipated 63,000, feeding into concerns about the resilience of the labor market. This sentiment was mirrored in the U.S. manufacturing sector, where the ISM Manufacturing PMI revealed a marginal contraction reflecting soft demand. Consequently, fixed-income markets reacted with broader declines in yield, particularly within the Treasury space. The notable drop in the 10-year yield to 4.35%, driven by fears of slowing growth, may add layers of complexity to future Fed policy decisions. In equity markets, the mixed performance of mega-cap tech stocks drew attention amid external pressures. Although tech stocks were generally favored as safe havens, the significant 5.42% drop in Tesla further sowed seeds of doubt regarding consumer spending and market dynamics. With Tesla's strong presence in the sustainability narrative, such a downturn raises questions about demand resilience going forward, suggesting potential volatility in investor sentiment towards the EV sector. Amid these market dynamics, the liquidity regime signals indicated tightening conditions, with negative momentum intensifying. The liquidity score of -1.658 emphasized the cautious tone in markets across risk assets. As economic data continues to unfold, we may see these pressures lead to further re-assessments regarding asset allocations and risk appetites. Week Ahead: Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report scheduled for April 3. Expectations suggest the labor market will provide only 65,000 jobs for March, a stark contrast to the previous month’s contraction. This data could significantly impact investor sentiment and expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, particularly in light of recent softness in labor market indicators. Additionally, any new developments surrounding the tensions in Iran and subsequent energy price adjustments will likely keep investors on high alert, as volatility remains a key characteristic of the current market landscape. As such, monitoring labor statistics alongside geopolitical narratives will be essential for positioning in the weeks ahead.

• WTI crude oil surged 12.75% (3.63σ) as geopolitical tensions escalate following recent Iran-related headlines, impacting sentiment across markets. • Lean hogs plummeted 14.12% (3.66σ) on oversupply concerns, reflecting ongoing agricultural market pressures. • Tesla’s shares fell 5.42% after underwhelming sales performance during a critical quarter, signaling potential volatility in the electric vehicle sector. Recommendations • Consider strategic long positions on energy stocks as WTI crude's spike may support sector recovery. • Monitor high yield corporate bonds; the decreasing spreads suggest testing the waters for potential investment opportunities. • Remain vigilant on mega-cap tech stocks, especially Tesla, for potential entry points given recent price action and sentiment shifts around earnings. Amid a volatile trading session, markets grappled with an array of geopolitical concerns influencing price action across asset classes. Notable headlines included reports from CNBC stating that oil prices surged following President Trump's speech addressing the potential escalation of U.S. actions in Iran, driving WTI crude up 12.75% and impacting energy stocks positively, despite broader sector uncertainties. Moreover, Tesla faced significant headwinds as reports of a disappointing sales quarter triggered a 5.42% decline in its stock price. This performance is critical as it may indicate overall market sentiment, particularly within the electric vehicle space, where competition is intensifying. Today's economic calendar revealed a mixed bag of labor market data, notably the initial jobless claims, which came in at 202,000, slightly lower than the forecast of 212,000. This decrease indicates ongoing resilience in the job market; however, continuing claims rose to 1.841 million, reflecting increasing pressure on long-term job seekers. Additionally, the U6 unemployment rate fell sharply to 8.5% from 9.5%, indicating a tightening labor market while heightening inflationary concerns. The mixed data load raises questions around the Federal Reserve's next moves, especially with a high likelihood of maintaining the current interest rate range in upcoming meetings. In the Treasury space, the yield movements painted a complex picture: while the 5-year Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 3.94%, the front end saw a slight decline with 1-month and 2-year notes down 2.0 and 0.0 basis points, respectively. This flattening of the yield curve may indicate waning confidence in short-term growth expectations, heightening the importance of upcoming economic releases to provide further clarity. Financial markets reacted cautiously amid deteriorating liquidity conditions — our liquidity regime signal showed negative momentum (-1.032), meaning conditions are tightening, while the acceleration of this trend (-0.0614) suggests it may continue. In equities, the impact of rising energy prices was felt unevenly across sectors. The energy sector dropped 2.60%, counteracting gains in technology, which rose 2.52%. The performance of mega-cap stocks was mixed; Microsoft and Nvidia advanced 1.11% and 0.93%, respectively, amid bullish sentiment regarding AI-driven growth projects. However, this was overshadowed by Tesla's considerable decline, which is significant for assessing overall market sentiment within the discretionary sector, particularly given its weight in sustainability themes. On the commodity front, metal prices were under pressure, with gold and silver falling 2.75% and 3.25%, respectively. This drop can partly be attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar, as indicated by the dollar index rising 0.64%. The bearish sentiment for precious metals seems at odds with the surge in energy contracts, suggesting potential shifts in capital flows as investors weigh inflation risks against safe-haven assets. This environment reinforces the need for nimble positioning across asset classes, particularly with many macroeconomic indicators suggesting inflationary pressure may persist in the near term. Looking ahead, upcoming economic releases, such as the Non-Farm Payrolls on April 3rd, are poised to significantly influence market sentiment; forecasts expect the labor market to absorb only 65,000 jobs in March, following a surprising contraction previously. The outcome could shape expectations for future Fed actions as investors maintain their attention on labor market dynamics amidst geopolitical complexities. Additionally, any further developments related to the U.S.-Iran situation could heighten volatility across both equity and commodity markets.

• Brent crude oil dropped sharply by 14.40% (-6.08σ) amidst increasing supply fears, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Iran. • Lean hog futures surged 16.34% (+6.01σ) as tight market conditions for livestock prompted significant buying. • US Treasury yields fell across all maturities, with the 10-year down 9 bp to 4.35%, reflecting weaker growth signals. Recommendations • Consider positioning for further gains in lean hogs as supply dynamics tighten and prices correct higher. • Evaluate opportunities in tech equities as the Nasdaq outperformed, driven by strong performance from key mega-caps like Alphabet. • Look for entry points in commodity markets, particularly energy, as oversold conditions may present a rebound opportunity following the sharp drop in crude. The market's risk tone today leaned risk-on as investors reacted positively to hints of reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically surrounding the ongoing Iran conflict. Headlines indicated that President Trump might suggest the war is winding down, contributing to optimism across risk assets. Following this sentiment, the S&P 500 rose 0.61% to finish at 6,568.11, with the Wilshire 5000 showing an even stronger performance at a 2.94% increase. This bullish outlook was complemented by a notable decline in the VIX, which fell 17.51%, indicating reduced volatility expectations going forward as investors showed renewed interest in equity markets. On the economic data front, today's calendar featured several releases, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which fell from 52.4 to 52.3, slightly missing expectations, and the initial jobless claims rising to 210,000 from 205,000. Most notably, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change suggested dismal growth, printing a decrease from 63,000 to 41,000, which indicates softer job growth than anticipated. The subdued employment data and marginal uptick in jobless claims contributed to the drop in Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield falling 9 bp to 4.35%. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate reflects a downward adjustment, now forecasting Q1 2026 growth at 1.95%, indicating a slowing economic environment that could see monetary policy remain dovish. In fixed-income markets, the pronounced drop in US Treasury yields, particularly across the curve with the 5-year note falling to 3.97% (-9 bps), mirrors investors’ concerns about slowing economic momentum. Corporate yields and spreads also demonstrated a marked improvement, with high-yield spreads narrowing by 18 bp to 3.28%, further illustrating a risk-on sentiment as capital flowed back into equities. The recent tightening in spreads, amid the decline in yield, suggests that investors are reassessing risk and allocating funds favorably towards equities. Notable movers within the equity landscape include technology stocks, with Alphabet gaining 3.13% driven by bullish analyst sentiment on its AI developments, and Tesla rising 1.93% as the market digested ongoing news about its self-driving technology advancements. The technology sector, reflecting broader investor confidence, rose by 4.02% today, leading the pack against defensive sectors such as energy, which faltered with a 3.62% decline. In commodities, collapsing crude oil prices, down 14.40% as supply concerns escalate from the geopolitics surrounding Iran, position energy markets in a precarious scenario. Conversely, lean hog futures skyrocketed by 16.34%, reflecting tightness in livestock supply, compelling traders to position ahead of potential shortage-driven rallies. The unusual demand-side dynamics juxtaposed against crumbling energy prices highlight bifurcation within commodity markets that investors should navigate with caution. Our liquidity regime signal points to a tightening environment, with deteriorating momentum (-1.658) and accelerating deterioration (-0.1815). This suggests macro liquidity conditions are deteriorating, a factor influencing the current market dynamics where investors are cautious about growth signals. Today's session data is consistent with our macro regime of "Expansion / Hot / Dovish," although the GDP slowing presents a significant risk. In conclusion, as markets digest the implications of fluctuating growth prospects coupled with continued geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Iran, the tone remains cautiously risk-on. Investors should focus on navigating sectors and commodities distinctly responding to these macro themes while keeping a close eye on upcoming economic data that could further dictate monetary policy and market direction.