what changed today
Daily move leaders where available, plus current policy pricing and regime pressure points.
Regime Inputs
extremeCPI (HEADLINE, SA)+0.87%
elevatedCORE PCE PRICE INDEX+0.37%
elevatedPPI FINAL DEMAND+1.78%
Policy PricingFed funds futures
No FedWatch pricing available.
Yieldsdaily move
US 5Y TREASURY-5.0 bp
US 7Y TREASURY-4.0 bp
Spreadsdaily move
CCC - AAA SPREAD-29.0 bp
10Y - 3M SPREAD-4.0 bp
Volatilityspot pulse
CBOE VVIX (VOL OF VOL INDEX)+2.36%
VIX-1.03%
Dollarfx pulse
US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)-0.04%
AUD/USD+0.78%
» MARKET FLASHupdated after market close; compares today's close vs yesterday's close
Key Takeaways: • Tesla shares soared 7.62% (2.43σ) following strong performance amid bullish sentiment in tech. • US CCC corporate yield dropped 33 bp (-3.15σ), signaling increased investor confidence in high-yield debt. • NASDAQ composite climbed 1.59% as tech stocks rallied, with Microsoft up 4.61% amid AI-driven enthusiasm. --- Recommendations: • Consider adding tech exposure — with strong earnings driving a renewed bullish sentiment, stocks like Microsoft and Tesla may continue to outperform. • Reduce exposure to energy sectors — energy stocks fell 2.26%, reflecting weak crude performance amid geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices. • Look to invest in high-yield corporate bonds — the fall in CCC yields suggests an easing of financial stress and improved risk appetite in credit markets. --- Today’s session witnessed a notable risk-on tone, largely propelled by a pronounced rally in tech stocks amidst improving investor sentiment. Key drivers included robust performances from major players like Tesla, which jumped 7.62% and lifted the NASDAQ composite by 1.59%, indicating strong demand for technology shares. Notably, Microsoft also surged 4.61%, buoyed by optimism surrounding AI developments, aligning with recent news from Yahoo reporting expansion in AI infrastructure. Additionally, news from Cointelegraph hinted at potential for further gains in Bitcoin due to bullish price action, enhancing overall market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies and tech-heavy equities. The economic calendar showed a range of steady economic data with the Empire State Manufacturing Index expected at 0.3, reflecting stability in the manufacturing sector. However, market participants are looking ahead to the upcoming jobless claims and retail sales numbers, anticipated to provide further insight into consumer resilience as well as potential implications for Fed policy. The resilience in economic readings helps buttress the ongoing strength in equities. In the bond markets, we observed significant tightening in credit spreads as the US CCC corporate yield plummeted by 33 bp, highlighting a shift in risk perception favoring junk bonds amidst heightened investor confidence. This aligns with the liquidity regime signal showing improving conditions, with positive momentum of +0.324 and accelerating improvement of +0.1420. Such trends support the risk-on environment observed in equities, especially notable in tech sectors like consumer discretionary, which advanced 2.20%. The liquidity tailwinds, characterized by lower real yields, were reflective in the broader trajectory of fixed income. The energy sector, in contrast, struggled, experiencing a 2.26% decline amidst softening crude oil prices, which fell 0.62%. Negative sentiment towards energy amidst geopolitical tensions around Iran—as reported by Reuters—blunted sector gains as concerns about supply disruptions weighed on prices. This serves as an important dislocation for investors to monitor, particularly as uncertainty remains over the region's geopolitical implications. In summary, the current macro regime remains categorized as "Goldilocks," with stable inflation, strong growth, and accommodative policy. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate indicates an annualized growth rate of 1.31% for Q1 2026, supporting the case for growth resilience. Looking ahead, the market's optimistic risk tone amid technology's renaissance, coupled with easing credit spreads, underscores potential investment opportunities particularly in sectors benefiting from technological advancements. Investors are advised to keep an eye on broader economic indicators as well as forthcoming earnings from major firms that could influence market direction substantially. As we look forward, upcoming calendar releases include crucial joblessness claims data and producer price indices, which are likely to inform market sentiment throughout the week. Furthermore, the Fed funds futures indicate a strong probability (83.4%) of maintaining the current target range, suggesting an easing in the near-term rate hike expectations, supporting continued bullish momentum in equities.
2026-04-16 07:23:53 UTC
economic calendar
OPEN
19
events
today
1high
2med
02:00GBGDP m/m
02:00GBConstruction Output m/m
02:00GBGoods Trade Balance
02:00GBIndex of Services 3m/3m
+ 15 more...
earnings
OPEN
34
reports
today
14 BMO7 AMC
PEPPEPSICO INCBMO
NFLXNETFLIX INCAMC
ABTABBOTT LABORATORIESBMO
TRVTRAVELERS COMPANIES INCBMO
+ 30 more...
unusual moves
OPEN
10
signals
detected
6 extreme4 elevated
1BITCOIN 12.34%+4.0σ
2US CCC CORPORATE YIELD -33.0 bp-3.1σ
3CPI (HEADLINE, SA) 0.87%+3.0σ
4ETHEREUM 16.27%+2.6σ
+ 6 more...
macro pulse
OPEN
10
key
metrics
DAILY FED FUNDS EFFECTIVE RATE3.64 0.0 bp
SOFR (OVERNIGHT)3.66 3.0 bp
US 2Y TREASURY3.76 -2.0 bp
US 10Y TREASURY4.26 -4.0 bp
+ 6 more...
Loading live prices...
Macro Research
Historical regime context, event studies, and grouped cross-asset performance.
Regime Timeline
Monthly regime bands and transition cadence over the last two years.
Historical regime timeline unavailable.
Regime Playbook
Historical 1-month asset behavior for the closest regime matches.
Regime playbook unavailable.
Event Impact View
Cross-asset event studies using recent releases and one-week move windows.
Event impact data unavailable.
Cross-Asset Performance Matrix
A grouped heatmap across short and medium horizons to show where momentum is actually concentrated.
Returns in %Rates in bp or duration proxy
Equities
6 assets
Asset1D1W1MYTD
S&P 500+0.80%+3.54%+4.83%+2.12%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE+1.59%+6.10%+7.33%+2.85%
RUSSELL 2000+0.30%+3.56%+7.97%+8.70%
EURO STOXX 50+0.29%+1.04%+3.95%+2.78%
DAX+0.03%+1.12%+2.39%-1.20%
NIKKEI 225+2.38%+12.04%+10.07%+18.05%
Swipe horizontally to compare all horizons.
Rates & Credit
5 assets
Asset1D1W1MYTD
US 2Y TREASURY-2.0 bp-5.0 bp+3.0 bp+29.0 bp
US 10Y TREASURY-4.0 bp-7.0 bp-2.0 bp+8.0 bp
US 30Y TREASURY-3.0 bp-3.0 bp-3.0 bp+3.0 bp
5Y BREAKEVEN INFLATION+2.0 bp+5.0 bp+3.0 bp+35.0 bp
US 10Y TIPS-3.0 bp-7.0 bp-3.0 bp-4.0 bp
Swipe horizontally to compare all horizons.
FX
5 assets
Asset1D1W1MYTD
US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)-0.04%-0.81%-1.74%-0.16%
EUR/USD0.00%+1.20%+2.67%+0.42%
USD/JPY+0.02%+0.12%-0.36%+1.33%
GBP/USD-0.04%+1.31%+2.00%+0.71%
AUD/USD+0.78%+2.07%+1.57%+7.65%
Swipe horizontally to compare all horizons.
Commodities
5 assets
Asset1D1W1MYTD
GOLD (COMEX)+1.02%+1.19%-3.64%+11.62%
SILVER (COMEX)+1.11%+5.37%-1.46%+12.95%
COPPER (COMEX)+0.77%+6.45%+5.07%+6.78%
WTI CRUDE OIL+0.73%-6.04%-4.42%+59.90%
NATURAL GAS-0.11%-2.36%-13.88%-27.92%
Swipe horizontally to compare all horizons.
Crypto & Vol
5 assets
Asset1D1W1MYTD
BITCOIN+12.34%+12.34%-0.93%-14.65%
ETHEREUM+16.27%+16.27%-0.42%-21.04%
SOLANA+3.79%+3.79%-10.50%-31.76%
VIX-1.03%-13.64%-30.28%+22.27%
CBOE VVIX (VOL OF VOL INDEX)+2.36%-12.08%-18.77%+10.45%
Swipe horizontally to compare all horizons.
Policy Rates
Sort
1d
0.0 bp
-0.0σ
1d
0.0 bp
+0.1σ
1d
0.0 bp
+0.1σ
1d
0.0 bp
+0.1σ
1d
3.0 bp
+0.7σ
1d
0.0 bp
+0.5σ
1d
0.0 bp
+0.7σ
International Bonds
Sort
1d
16.0 bp
+1.0σ
1d
-10.4 bp
-0.4σ
1d
23.5 bp
+2.6σ
1d
26.8 bp
+1.4σ
1d
-4.0 bp
-0.9σ
US Government Yields
Sort
1d
2.0 bp
+1.0σ
1d
0.0 bp
+0.1σ
1d
-1.0 bp
-0.4σ
1d
1.0 bp
+0.3σ
1d
-2.0 bp
-0.4σ
1d
-3.0 bp
-0.6σ
1d
-5.0 bp
-1.0σ
1d
-4.0 bp
-0.8σ
1d
-4.0 bp
-0.9σ
1d
-4.0 bp
-1.0σ
1d
-3.0 bp
-0.7σ
Yield Spreads
Sort
1d
-2.0 bp
n/a
1d
-3.0 bp
n/a
1d
-4.0 bp
n/a
1d
-2.0 bp
n/a
1d
2.0 bp
n/a
Corporate Yields
Sort
1d
-4.0 bp
-0.9σ
1d
-6.0 bp
-1.4σ
1d
-33.0 bp
-3.1σ
Corporate Yield Spreads
Sort
1d
0.0 bp
n/a
1d
-2.0 bp
n/a
1d
-29.0 bp
n/a
TIPS
Sort
1d
-3.0 bp
-0.7σ
1d
-3.0 bp
-0.8σ
1d
-3.0 bp
-0.9σ
Mortgages
Sort
1d
-3.0 bp
-0.3σ
1d
-9.0 bp
-0.8σ
Liquidity
Sort
1d
18,527.00
+0.7σ
1d
0.00
+0.1σ
1d
-0.08
+0.0σ
1d
89,539.00
+0.4σ
1d
-99,342.00
-1.7σ
Labour Market
Sort
1d
-38,000.00
-0.6σ
1d
16,000.00
+1.3σ
1d
-358.00
-1.2σ
1d
-0.10
-1.0σ
1d
-0.10
-0.4σ
1d
178.00
+0.1σ
1d
-78.00
-0.4σ
1d
-0.10
-0.1σ
1d
-1.00
-0.8σ
Inflation
Sort
1d
2.83
+3.0σ
1d
0.65
+0.3σ
1d
0.48
+1.3σ
1d
0.47
+2.0σ
1d
4.81
+1.7σ
Growth
Sort
1d
327.44
+1.0σ
1d
3,991.00
+0.3σ
1d
-62.00
-0.9σ
1d
83.00
+0.8σ
1d
0.21
+0.2σ
1d
-3.80
-0.6σ
Breakevens
Sort
1d
2.0 bp
+0.7σ
1d
2.0 bp
+1.0σ
1d
2.0 bp
+0.8σ
Currencies
Sort
1d
-0.0390
-0.1σ
1d
0.0000
-0.0σ
1d
-0.0006
-0.1σ
1d
0.0380
-0.0σ
1d
0.0056
+1.6σ
1d
-0.0042
-1.2σ
1d
0.0008
+0.3σ
1d
0.0007
+0.3σ
1d
0.0005
+0.2σ
1d
-0.0106
-0.2σ
1d
-0.0045
-0.0σ
1d
-0.0117
-0.1σ
1d
0.0035
-0.3σ
1d
-0.0614
-0.5σ
1d
-0.0050
-0.2σ
1d
0.0001
+0.0σ
1d
-0.0440
-0.2σ
1d
0.0007
+0.3σ
Metals
Sort
1d
49.00
+0.5σ
1d
0.88
+0.2σ
1d
0.05
+0.3σ
1d
12.75
+0.2σ
1d
0.00
n/a
1d
36.10
+0.5σ
1d
20.90
+0.3σ
Energy
Sort
1d
0.67
+0.2σ
1d
0.59
+0.1σ
1d
-0.00
-0.0σ
1d
-0.15
-1.1σ
1d
-0.06
-0.9σ
Agriculture
Sort
1d
1.00
+0.2σ
1d
12.50
+1.4σ
1d
0.25
-0.0σ
1d
1.60
+0.2σ
1d
-80.00
-0.3σ
1d
0.77
+1.1σ
1d
-7.90
-0.8σ
Livestock
Sort
1d
0.05
-0.1σ
1d
0.20
+0.1σ
Volatility / Sentiment
Sort
1d
2.25
+0.4σ
1d
-0.19
-0.1σ
1d
0.20
+0.1σ
Indices (US)
Sort
1d
55.57
+0.9σ
1d
-72.27
-0.3σ
1d
376.94
+1.4σ
1d
7.99
+0.2σ
1d
502.39
+0.7σ
Sectors (Cap Weighted)
Sort
1d
0.80
+0.7σ
1d
1.74
+0.3σ
1d
-0.41
-0.6σ
1d
-0.19
-0.0σ
1d
0.39
+0.7σ
1d
-1.06
-0.8σ
1d
-2.17
-1.6σ
1d
-0.63
-0.2σ
1d
-0.02
-0.1σ
1d
2.36
+0.3σ
1d
-0.45
-0.1σ
Sectors (Equal Weighted)
Sort
1d
0.46
+2.3σ
1d
-0.13
-0.5σ
1d
-0.15
-0.2σ
1d
1.02
+1.3σ
1d
-0.17
-0.6σ
1d
0.45
+0.6σ
1d
-0.51
-1.4σ
1d
-0.89
-1.7σ
1d
-0.80
-1.3σ
1d
-0.01
-0.1σ
1d
0.46
+1.3σ
Stocks (US)
Sort
1d
2.36
+0.5σ
1d
7.60
+2.1σ
1d
18.11
+2.6σ
1d
-0.52
-0.2σ
1d
9.09
+0.6σ
1d
4.21
+0.7σ
1d
27.75
+2.4σ
Crypto
Sort
1d
8,230.38
+4.0σ
1d
329.32
+2.6σ
1d
3.13
+0.5σ
1d
0.01
+0.7σ
1d
0.09
+1.0σ
1d
15.89
+0.5σ
1d
0.70
+0.9σ
1d
0.01
+0.4σ
1d
2.44
+0.7σ
Global Benchmarks
Sort
1d
-0.33
-0.5σ
1d
-0.04
-0.2σ
1d
0.69
+0.5σ
Indices (Europe)
Sort
1d
17.11
+0.2σ
1d
7.02
-0.0σ
1d
12.00
+0.1σ
1d
20.72
+0.2σ
Indices (Asia)
Sort
1d
1,384.10
+1.6σ
1d
383.23
+1.0σ
1d
28.34
+0.8σ
1d
51.36
+1.1σ
1d
134.66
+1.2σ
1d
-23.70
-0.4σ
1d
-97.95
-0.5σ
Indices (Americas & EM)
Sort
1d
53.60
+0.0σ
1d
-919.00
-0.7σ
1d
693.25
+0.9σ
1d
81.00
+0.1σ
last updated: 2026-04-16 07:23:53 UTC