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Policy Path Dashboard

Central Bank Monitor

Compare the market-implied policy path across six major central banks. The blue line is the implied policy rate by meeting, amber bars show total hikes or cuts priced versus the current target, and gray bars show the repricing since the nearest available historical snapshot.

Coverage
6 banks
Meetings
59
Source
rateprobability.com
Last Updated
Jul 15, 16:35 UTC
Historical Rate + Implied Forward Path

Solid lines = actual historical policy rates. Dashed vertical = today. Dashed lines = market-implied path at each upcoming meeting.

Historical Rate + Implied Forward Path
FEDECBBOJBOCBOERBANow— solid = actual, dashed = implied
Loading historical data…
Implied Policy Rate Paths — Levels
FEDECBBOJBOCBOERBA
5.06%3.91%2.76%1.62%0.47%NowM1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8
Implied Policy Rate Paths — Relative
bp from current
FEDECBBOJBOCBOERBA
6244279-8NowM1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8
Upcoming Meetings — Implied Policy Move
FEDFederal Reserve
Jul 29
+3bp3.65%
Sep 16
+6bp3.68%
Oct 28
+20bp3.83%
Dec 9
+25bp3.88%
ECBEuropean Central Bank
Jul 23
+1bp2.26%
Sep 10
+3bp2.28%
Oct 29
+26bp2.50%
Dec 17
+32bp2.57%
BOJBank of Japan
Jul 31
-0bp1.00%
Sep 18
1bp1.00%
Oct 30
+7bp1.07%
Dec 18
+16bp1.16%
BOCBank of Canada
Sep 2
+1bp2.26%
Oct 28
+2bp2.27%
Dec 9
+5bp2.30%
Jan 20
+18bp2.43%
BOEBank of England
Jul 30
+2bp3.77%
Sep 17
+4bp3.79%
Nov 5
+19bp3.94%
Dec 17
+29bp4.04%
RBAReserve Bank of Australia
Aug 11
+1bp4.36%
Sep 29
+7bp4.42%
Nov 3
+11bp4.46%
Dec 8
+15bp4.50%
Current Real Rates & Inflation
BankNominal RateInflationReal RateBreakeven 5YTerminal Real
FEDTIPS3.63%2.28%5Y Breakeven2.06%2.28%1.77%
ECB2.25%3.14%CPI YoY (May 26)-0.89%—-0.36%
BOJ1.00%3.17%CPI YoY (Jan 25)-2.17%—-1.64%
BOC2.25%2.32%CPI YoY (Mar 25)-0.07%—0.56%
BOE3.75%3.42%CPI YoY (Mar 25)0.33%—0.88%
RBA4.35%2.40%CPI YoY (Jan 25)1.95%—2.06%
US real rate: 5Y TIPS yield (DFII5) · Others: policy rate − CPI YoY (estimated) · Terminal: implied terminal nominal − current inflation proxy
Predicted Real Rate Pathsimplied nominal − inflation expectation
FEDECB*BOJ*BOC*BOE*RBA*
2.77%1.38%-0.02%-1.42%-2.81%NowM1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8
* estimated (policy rate − CPI YoY)
Real Rates — History & Current LevelsUS: 5Y TIPS (DFII5) · Breakeven (T5YIE) · Others: estimated
US 5Y Real (TIPS)US 5Y BreakevenECB est.BOJ est.BOC est.BOE est.RBA est.
3.45%1.86%0.27%-1.31%-2.90%Feb 25May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26ECB-0.89%BOJ-2.17%BOC-0.07%BOE0.33%RBA1.95%FED2.06%
PPP Valuation — How Far Spot Is From Fair ValueWorld Bank PA.NUS.PPP · +ve = USD overvalued

PPP shows where a currency should trade based on relative price levels. Combined with the real rate differential it gives a fuller picture: rates tell you the direction of pressure, PPP tells you how stretched the valuation already is.

EUR/USD
+23.3%spot 1.1419PPP 1.4085
USD/JPY
+67.0%spot 162.17PPP 97.08
USD/CAD
+20.6%spot 1.41PPP 1.17
GBP/USD
+10.3%spot 1.3387PPP 1.4768
AUD/USD
+2.7%spot 0.6963PPP 0.7148
← USD undervaluedUSD overvalued →
PairSpotPPP (2025)USD +/-Real Rate DiffCombined Signal
EUR/USDECB1.14191.4085+23.3%+2.95%Rates vs valuation
USD/JPYBOJ162.1797.08+67.0%+4.23%Rates vs valuation
USD/CADBOC1.411.17+20.6%+2.13%Rates vs valuation
GBP/USDBOE1.33871.4768+10.3%+1.73%Rates vs valuation
AUD/USDRBA0.69630.7148+2.7%+0.11%Mixed
PPP source: World Bank PA.NUS.PPP (annual, GDP-based). USD +/- = how much USD is above/below PPP fair value. Real rate diff = US real rate minus other real rate. Combined signal is indicative only — not a trading recommendation.
Real Rate Differential Path — USD vs Each Currencyabove zero = USD favored · below zero = other favored
EUR/USDUSD/JPYUSD/CADGBP/USDAUD/USD
5.10%3.45%1.81%0.16%-1.49%neutralNowM1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8EUR/USDUSD/JPYUSD/CADGBP/USDAUD/USD
Currency Implicationsclick any row for reasoning · real rate differential vs USD

RIRP: a higher US real rate implies USD appreciation. Trend = how the differential evolves across the path. Δ/Mtg = avg change per meeting.

PairNow DiffM1 DiffTerminal DiffΔ/MtgTrendTerminal Signal
▶EUR/USDECB
+2.95%+2.26%+2.13%-0.01%USD narrowing ↓EUR/USD lower ↓
▶USD/JPYBOJ
+4.23%+3.55%+3.41%+0.00%USD narrowing ↓USD/JPY higher ↑
▶USD/CADBOC
+2.13%+1.44%+1.21%-0.01%USD narrowing ↓USD/CAD higher ↑
▶GBP/USDBOE
+1.73%+1.03%+0.89%-0.01%USD narrowing ↓GBP/USD lower ↓
▶AUD/USDRBA
+0.11%-0.58%-0.29%+0.04%USD widening ↑AUD/USD higher ↑
Diff = US predicted real rate − other predicted real rate. Δ/Mtg = avg change per meeting. Reasoning is model-generated from rate path data — not a trading recommendation.
USFED Monitor
Federal Reserve
as of
Jul 15, 26
Midpoint
3.63%
EFFR
3.62%
Terminal
+1.71
Next Meeting
Jul 29
10 meetingsterminal hikes3W repricing +1.0 bp
Implied RateTotal Hikes/Cuts3W Repricing
4.14%2.24.00%1.53.85%0.83.71%0.13.56%-0.6Jul 29Sep 16Oct 28Dec 9Jan 27Mar 17Apr 28Jun 9Implied Policy Rate (%)Implied 25bp Hikes/Cuts
MeetingRateH/C3W
Jul 29, 2026
3.65%
+0.12
0.00
Sep 16, 2026
3.68%
+0.22
-0.23
Oct 28, 2026
3.83%
+0.80
0.00
Dec 09, 2026
3.88%
+1.00
-0.16
Source: market-implied meeting oddssource
EUECB Monitor
European Central Bank
as of
2026-07-15T08:00:15
Deposit Rate
2.25%
ESTR
2.18%
Terminal
+2.10
Next Meeting
Jul 23
10 meetingsterminal hikes3W repricing +0.3 bp
Implied RateTotal Hikes/Cuts3W Repricing
2.83%2.42.65%1.72.47%1.02.29%0.22.11%-0.5Jul 23Sep 10Oct 29Dec 17Feb 4Mar 18Apr 29Jun 10Implied Policy Rate (%)Implied 25bp Hikes/Cuts
MeetingRateH/C3W
Jul 23, 2026
effective Jul 29
2.26%
0.00
0.00
Sep 10, 2026
effective Sep 16
2.28%
+0.11
-0.10
Oct 29, 2026
effective Nov 4
2.50%
+1.02
+0.35
Dec 17, 2026
effective Dec 23
2.57%
+1.28
+0.36
Source: market-implied meeting oddssource
JPBOJ Monitor
Bank of Japan
as of
2026-07-15 08:00:15 EDT
Policy Rate
1.00%
TONA
0.98%
Terminal
+2.13
Next Meeting
Jul 31
10 meetingsterminal hikes3W repricing -0.2 bp
Implied RateTotal Hikes/Cuts3W Repricing
1.47%2.01.33%1.41.20%0.81.06%0.30.93%-0.3Jul 31Sep 18Oct 30Dec 18Jan 22Mar 19Apr 30Jun 18Implied Policy Rate (%)Implied 25bp Hikes/Cuts
MeetingRateH/C3W
Jul 31, 2026
1.00%
0.00
0.00
Sep 18, 2026
1.00%
0.00
0.00
Oct 30, 2026
1.07%
+0.29
0.00
Dec 18, 2026
1.16%
+0.64
0.00
Source: market-implied meeting oddssource
CABOC Monitor
Bank of Canada
as of
2026-07-15 09:52:24 EDT
Overnight Rate
2.25%
CORRA
2.30%
Terminal
+2.51
Next Meeting
Sep 2
9 meetingsterminal hikes3W repricing -0.4 bp
Implied RateTotal Hikes/Cuts3W Repricing
2.84%2.52.67%1.72.51%1.02.35%0.22.19%-0.5Sep 2Oct 28Dec 9Jan 20Mar 3Apr 14May 26Jul 7Implied Policy Rate (%)Implied 25bp Hikes/Cuts
MeetingRateH/C3W
Sep 02, 2026
2.26%
0.00
0.00
Oct 28, 2026
2.27%
+0.08
0.00
Dec 09, 2026
2.30%
+0.21
-0.13
Jan 20, 2027
2.43%
+0.73
+0.23
Source: market-implied meeting oddssource
UKBOE Monitor
Bank of England
as of
2026-07-15 08:00:40 EDT
Bank Rate
3.75%
SONIA
3.73%
Terminal
+2.20
Next Meeting
Jul 30
10 meetingsterminal hikes3W repricing +0.5 bp
Implied RateTotal Hikes/Cuts3W Repricing
4.35%2.54.18%1.84.01%1.13.84%0.33.66%-0.4Jul 30Sep 17Nov 5Dec 17Feb 4Mar 18Apr 29Jun 17Implied Policy Rate (%)Implied 25bp Hikes/Cuts
MeetingRateH/C3W
Jul 30, 2026
3.77%
+0.07
0.00
Sep 17, 2026
3.79%
+0.16
0.00
Nov 05, 2026
3.94%
+0.78
+0.32
Dec 17, 2026
4.04%
+1.16
+0.44
Source: market-implied meeting oddssource
AURBA Monitor
Reserve Bank of Australia
as of
2026-07-15 08:00:12 EDT
Cash Rate
4.35%
AONIA
4.35%
Terminal
+0.44
Next Meeting
Aug 11
10 meetingsterminal hikes3W repricing -0.6 bp
Implied RateTotal Hikes/Cuts3W Repricing
4.55%0.94.50%0.64.44%0.34.38%0.14.33%-0.2Aug 11Sep 29Nov 3Dec 8Feb 9Mar 23May 4Jun 22Implied Policy Rate (%)Implied 25bp Hikes/Cuts
MeetingRateH/C3W
Aug 11, 2026
4.36%
+0.06
0.00
Sep 29, 2026
4.42%
+0.26
0.00
Nov 03, 2026
4.46%
+0.43
+0.10
Dec 08, 2026
4.50%
+0.61
+0.14
Source: market-implied meeting oddssource