prediction markets
Prediction Markets
Live odds from Polymarket for macro-relevant events
54 events1116 markets$5.6B total volUpdated 08:04 AM ET
Fed & Rates
7 eventsFed Decision in June?
$50.9M vol$5.1M liq
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
98%
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MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
$35.9M vol$247K liq
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
90%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
74%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
16%
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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$31.0M vol$1.7M liq
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
68%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
19%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
8%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
3%
+9 more markets
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MLB World Series Champion 2026
$26.8M vol$2.3M liq
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?
14%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series?
3%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
4%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?
2%
+27 more markets
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Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
$9.5M vol$679K liq
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
4%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
0%
Will Party A gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
0%
Will Party J gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
0%
+30 more markets
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Fed Decision in July?
$7.0M vol$811K liq
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
92%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
0%
+1 more markets
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What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$6.6M vol$148K liq
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
7%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?
0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
7%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
43%
+11 more markets
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Geopolitics
38 eventsWorld Cup Winner
$1.3B vol$295.2M liq
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
17%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
11%
+54 more markets
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$1.2B vol$61.6M liq
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Will Person P win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%
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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
$646.6M vol$42.4M liq
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Will Person AN win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%
Will Person CX win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
31%
+124 more markets
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Presidential Election Winner 2028
$609.6M vol$32.9M liq
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
Will Person BG win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Will Person CZ win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Will Person Q win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
+124 more markets
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2026 NBA Champion
$405.2M vol$805K liq
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
35%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
64%
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US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$229.4M vol$2.3M liq
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
42%
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Venezuela leader end of 2026?
$89.4M vol$1.6M liq
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
5%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
0%
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Iran ceasefire continues through...?
100%
$54.7M vol$5.3M liq
Yes 100%No 0%
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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$48.9M vol$586K liq
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
0%
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Iran closes its airspace by...?
$48.6M vol$108K liq
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
25%
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Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
2%
$45.7M vol$402K liq
Yes 2%No 98%
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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
$42.3M vol$486K liq
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
77%
+2 more markets
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Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
0%
$37.3M vol$3.4M liq
Yes 0%No 100%
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Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
7%
$33.4M vol$165K liq
Yes 7%No 93%
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18%
$32.9M vol$602K liq
Yes 18%No 83%
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
7%
$31.4M vol$981K liq
Yes 7%No 93%
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California Governor Election Winner
$29.0M vol$4.1M liq
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
9%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?
0%
+41 more markets
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Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
$27.6M vol$274K liq
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
57%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
41%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?
29%
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NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Champion
$25.1M vol$551K liq
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
0%
Will any other team win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
0%
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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
$24.1M vol$524K liq
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
21%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
0%
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What will happen before GTA VI?
$22.5M vol$775K liq
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
53%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
52%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
49%
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
51%
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US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
$21.3M vol$310K liq
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
4%
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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
$19.8M vol$415K liq
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
12%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
0%
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Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
$19.1M vol$1.6M liq
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
9%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
9%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
8%
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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
13%
$19.1M vol$258K liq
Yes 13%No 88%
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Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
$17.8M vol$79K liq
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
41%
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?
23%
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
24%
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?
24%
+11 more markets
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Iran leadership change by...?
$15.8M vol$206K liq
Iran leadership change by December 31?
28%
Iran leadership change by May 31?
1%
Iran leadership change by June 30?
7%
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Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$12.7M vol$368K liq
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
44%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
27%
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Iran leader end of 2026?
$12.5M vol$1.8M liq
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
3%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
71%
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Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
7%
$11.3M vol$153K liq
Yes 7%No 93%
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Highest grossing movie in 2026?
$9.6M vol$1.4M liq
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?
1%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
1%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?
3%
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Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
1%
$9.3M vol$88K liq
Yes 1%No 99%
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Trump out as President before 2027?
11%
$8.7M vol$285K liq
Yes 11%No 90%
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What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?
$8.3M vol$283K liq
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
0%
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Where will Trump and Putin meet next?
$8.0M vol$360K liq
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?
0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland?
0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?
1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Japan?
0%
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Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$7.8M vol$491K liq
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
40%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
1%
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Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
7%
$7.5M vol$57K liq
Yes 7%No 94%
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US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
2%
$6.4M vol$148K liq
Yes 2%No 98%
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Markets & Crypto
6 eventsWhat price will Bitcoin hit in May?
$41.2M vol$3.1M liq
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?
0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?
0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?
0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
0%
+18 more markets
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What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
$38.8M vol$1.6M liq
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
4%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?
4%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?
6%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?
10%
+22 more markets
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When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
$23.8M vol$253K liq
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
8%
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Largest Company end of June?
$17.7M vol$1.6M liq
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
89%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
3%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
0%
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Largest Company end of May?
$10.4M vol$214K liq
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
100%
Will Company A be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
0%
Will Company C be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
0%
Will Company E be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
0%
+19 more markets
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Bitcoin all time high by ___?
$7.6M vol$265K liq
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?
1%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
6%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
14%
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Commodities
3 events2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
$80.9M vol$474K liq
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
59%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
41%
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What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
$39.7M vol$2.8M liq
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?
0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?
0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?
0%
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Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
$21.1M vol$1.5M liq
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?
2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?
2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June?
1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?
1%
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Data sourced from Polymarket. Prices reflect crowd-sourced probability estimates and are not financial advice.