prediction markets
Prediction Markets
Live odds from Polymarket for macro-relevant events
47 events1388 markets$7.9B total volUpdated 02:06 PM ET
Fed & Rates
7 eventsFed Decision in July?
$66.6M vol$5.0M liq
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
96%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
4%
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World Cup: Golden Boot Winner
$64.2M vol$6.8M liq
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
62%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
37%
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0%
+41 more markets
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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$43.0M vol$3.1M liq
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
84%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
13%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1%
+9 more markets
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MLB World Series Champion 2026
$35.6M vol$4.1M liq
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?
13%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series?
2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
5%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?
0%
+27 more markets
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Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
$15.4M vol$1.6M liq
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
56%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
4%
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Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
$8.2M vol$2.1M liq
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
2%
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3%
+85 more markets
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What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$6.7M vol$313K liq
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?
1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?
1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
2%
+11 more markets
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Geopolitics
30 eventsWorld Cup Winner
$4.3B vol$16.6M liq
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
58%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
42%
Will Any Other Team win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0%
Will Team AG win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0%
+8 more markets
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$1.2B vol$70.3M liq
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
20%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
14%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5%
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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
$675.5M vol$51.6M liq
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
41%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
27%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
+124 more markets
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Presidential Election Winner 2028
$661.9M vol$39.0M liq
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
20%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
12%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
8%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
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Venezuela leader end of 2026?
$93.8M vol$1.9M liq
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
2%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
13%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
0%
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Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
$66.0M vol$1.0M liq
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
0%
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
0%
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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$63.9M vol$345K liq
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
7%
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
23%
$43.4M vol$444K liq
Yes 23%No 78%
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California Governor Election Winner
$40.3M vol$6.7M liq
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?
0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?
0%
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
$38.6M vol$731K liq
Yes 4%No 96%
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Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
$34.9M vol$233K liq
Yes 4%No 96%
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Iran leader end of 2026?
$30.1M vol$1.6M liq
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
6%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
79%
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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
$28.5M vol$173K liq
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?
6%
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What will happen before GTA VI?
$23.3M vol$615K liq
Another pandemic before GTA VI?
51%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
51%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
51%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
50%
+4 more markets
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Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
$22.7M vol$2.3M liq
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
5%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
4%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
10%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2%
+67 more markets
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NBA: LeBron James Next Team
$22.1M vol$1.6M liq
Will LeBron James play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27?
0%
Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?
0%
Will LeBron James play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?
0%
Will LeBron James play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27?
0%
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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
9%
$22.1M vol$474K liq
Yes 9%No 92%
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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
7%
$21.6M vol$89K liq
Yes 7%No 94%
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Iran leadership change by...?
$19.7M vol$214K liq
Iran leadership change by September 30?
13%
Iran leadership change by July 31?
4%
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
31%
Iran leadership change by December 31?
21%
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Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
$18.1M vol$70K liq
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?
34%
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?
62%
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?
20%
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?
17%
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Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$17.3M vol$244K liq
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?
5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?
9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
14%
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Highest grossing movie in 2026?
$15.0M vol$1.6M liq
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0%
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Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$12.1M vol$119K liq
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
0%
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Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
4%
$11.6M vol$134K liq
Yes 4%No 96%
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US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
$10.2M vol$1.6M liq
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
7%
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Trump out as President before 2027?
8%
$10.0M vol$386K liq
Yes 8%No 93%
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Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
6%
$7.6M vol$85K liq
Yes 6%No 95%
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Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
$6.7M vol$238K liq
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
49%
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NBA: 2027 Champion
$6.4M vol$6.8M liq
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5%
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0%
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
1%
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Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
$6.3M vol$382K liq
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
14%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
23%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?
3%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?
11%
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Markets & Crypto
8 eventsWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
$48.0M vol$2.4M liq
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?
13%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?
28%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
40%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?
56%
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When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
4%
$27.1M vol$96K liq
Yes 4%No 96%
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What price will Bitcoin hit in July?
$10.3M vol$1.5M liq
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?
0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?
1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?
1%
+16 more markets
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Bitcoin all time high by ___?
$9.3M vol$174K liq
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
2%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
6%
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2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
$5.7M vol$970K liq
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
23%
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
11%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
9%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
7%
+63 more markets
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Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$4.8M vol$608K liq
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
86%
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
1%
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
0%
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
14%
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Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
6%
$4.5M vol$116K liq
Yes 6%No 94%
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Largest Company end of December 2026?
$4.3M vol$867K liq
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
62%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
20%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
13%
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Commodities
2 eventsWorld Cup: Golden Ball Winner
$10.2M vol$981K liq
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0%
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0%
+37 more markets
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What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
$5.8M vol$899K liq
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?
1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?
1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?
2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
6%
+14 more markets
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Data sourced from Polymarket. Prices reflect crowd-sourced probability estimates and are not financial advice.