prediction markets
Prediction Markets
Live odds from Polymarket for macro-relevant events
47 events1144 markets$4.1B total volUpdated 03:38 AM ET
Fed & Rates
8 eventsFed decision in April?
$95.9M vol$14.2M liq
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
99%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
0%
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Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$30.1M vol$1.1M liq
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
94%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?
0%
+31 more markets
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MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
$22.2M vol$128K liq
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
3%
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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$19.2M vol$1.5M liq
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
39%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
27%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
16%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
9%
+9 more markets
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MLB World Series Champion 2026
$13.2M vol$3.9M liq
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?
10%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series?
6%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?
2%
+27 more markets
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Fed Decision in June?
$8.0M vol$1.0M liq
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
91%
+1 more markets
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What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$6.3M vol$308K liq
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
2%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?
1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
10%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
30%
+11 more markets
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Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
$5.5M vol$375K liq
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
0%
Will Party A gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
0%
Will Party J gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
0%
+30 more markets
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Geopolitics
31 eventsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$1.1B vol$47.3M liq
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Will Person P win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%
+124 more markets
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2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
$659.0M vol$145.5M liq
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
17%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
11%
+54 more markets
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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
$557.9M vol$30.1M liq
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Will Person AN win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%
Will Person CX win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
39%
+124 more markets
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Presidential Election Winner 2028
$529.7M vol$29.7M liq
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
Will Person BG win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Will Person CZ win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Will Person Q win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
+124 more markets
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2026 NBA Champion
$270.3M vol$9.6M liq
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
45%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?
2%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?
0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
4%
+15 more markets
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NBA MVP
$89.5M vol$5.3M liq
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
0%
Will Player G win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
0%
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
0%
Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
0%
+29 more markets
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Venezuela leader end of 2026?
$82.9M vol$1.1M liq
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
8%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
0%
+53 more markets
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$42.1M vol$861K liq
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
89%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
86%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
96%
+2 more markets
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Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
8%
$32.6M vol$265K liq
Yes 8%No 92%
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Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
2%
$31.9M vol$1.1M liq
Yes 2%No 98%
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Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
8%
$31.2M vol$754K liq
Yes 8%No 93%
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Military action against Iran ends by...?
100%
$29.9M vol$10.3M liq
Yes 100%No 0%
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Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
$26.7M vol$467K liq
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
40%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
83%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
70%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
19%
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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$25.7M vol$621K liq
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
9%
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Will Trump visit China by...?
$24.5M vol$488K liq
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
1%
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
83%
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
89%
Will Trump visit China by May 8?
2%
+1 more markets
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What will happen before GTA VI?
$21.0M vol$1.8M liq
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
55%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
62%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
53%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
49%
+5 more markets
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
9%
$19.6M vol$844K liq
Yes 9%No 91%
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NBA Western Conference Champion
$17.5M vol$1.5M liq
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
58%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
12%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
2%
+7 more markets
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Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
$17.4M vol$168K liq
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
31%
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?
12%
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
33%
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?
12%
+11 more markets
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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
$15.3M vol$424K liq
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
13%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?
1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
3%
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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
19%
$15.0M vol$501K liq
Yes 19%No 82%
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Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
$13.8M vol$1.9M liq
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
7%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
10%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
3%
+67 more markets
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
33%
$10.6M vol$496K liq
Yes 33%No 68%
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California Governor Election Winner
$10.5M vol$2.1M liq
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
9%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
6%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?
0%
+41 more markets
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Iran leadership change by...?
$8.9M vol$428K liq
Iran leadership change by December 31?
31%
Iran leadership change by April 30?
7%
Iran leadership change by May 31?
14%
Iran leadership change by June 30?
19%
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Trump out as President by April 30?
1%
$8.5M vol$946K liq
Yes 1%No 99%
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US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$7.7M vol$996K liq
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
73%
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Trump out as President before 2027?
17%
$7.0M vol$505K liq
Yes 17%No 84%
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Iran leader end of 2026?
$6.5M vol$926K liq
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
2%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
69%
+117 more markets
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Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$6.0M vol$186K liq
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
8%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
1%
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Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
3%
$5.7M vol$329K liq
Yes 3%No 97%
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Markets & Crypto
5 eventsWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
$31.4M vol$1.8M liq
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
4%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?
6%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?
8%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?
11%
+23 more markets
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What price will Bitcoin hit in April?
$26.2M vol$4.2M liq
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?
5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?
0%
+14 more markets
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MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? (if by June 30)
$15.6M vol$325K liq
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
14%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
6%
+4 more markets
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Largest Company end of April?
$8.5M vol$1.7M liq
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
99%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
0%
+24 more markets
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Bitcoin all time high by ___?
$6.2M vol$197K liq
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?
4%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
10%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
17%
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Commodities
3 events2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
$66.4M vol$2.2M liq
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
14%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
7%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
7%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
22%
+12 more markets
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What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
$34.5M vol$2.8M liq
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?
2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?
1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?
2%
+18 more markets
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Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
$10.2M vol$846K liq
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?
8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?
4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June?
2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?
3%
+14 more markets
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Data sourced from Polymarket. Prices reflect crowd-sourced probability estimates and are not financial advice.