• Brent crude oil dropped sharply by 14.40% (-6.08σ) amidst increasing supply fears, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Iran. • Lean hog futures surged 16.34% (+6.01σ) as tight market conditions for livestock prompted significant buying. • US Treasury yields fell across all maturities, with the 10-year down 9 bp to 4.35%, reflecting weaker growth signals. **Recommendations** • Consider positioning for further gains in lean hogs as supply dynamics tighten and prices correct higher. • Evaluate opportunities in tech equities as the Nasdaq outperformed, driven by strong performance from key mega-caps like Alphabet. • Look for entry points in commodity markets, particularly energy, as oversold conditions may present a rebound opportunity following the sharp drop in crude. The market's risk tone today leaned risk-on as investors reacted positively to hints of reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically surrounding the ongoing Iran conflict. Headlines indicated that President Trump might suggest the war is winding down, contributing to optimism across risk assets. Following this sentiment, the S&P 500 rose 0.61% to finish at 6,568.11, with the Wilshire 5000 showing an even stronger performance at a 2.94% increase. This bullish outlook was complemented by a notable decline in the VIX, which fell 17.51%, indicating reduced volatility expectations going forward as investors showed renewed interest in equity markets. On the economic data front, today's calendar featured several releases, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which fell from 52.4 to 52.3, slightly missing expectations, and the initial jobless claims rising to 210,000 from 205,000. Most notably, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change suggested dismal growth, printing a decrease from 63,000 to 41,000, which indicates softer job growth than anticipated. The subdued employment data and marginal uptick in jobless claims contributed to the drop in Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield falling 9 bp to 4.35%. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate reflects a downward adjustment, now forecasting Q1 2026 growth at 1.95%, indicating a slowing economic environment that could see monetary policy remain dovish. In fixed-income markets, the pronounced drop in US Treasury yields, particularly across the curve with the 5-year note falling to 3.97% (-9 bps), mirrors investors’ concerns about slowing economic momentum. Corporate yields and spreads also demonstrated a marked improvement, with high-yield spreads narrowing by 18 bp to 3.28%, further illustrating a risk-on sentiment as capital flowed back into equities. The recent tightening in spreads, amid the decline in yield, suggests that investors are reassessing risk and allocating funds favorably towards equities. Notable movers within the equity landscape include technology stocks, with Alphabet gaining 3.13% driven by bullish analyst sentiment on its AI developments, and Tesla rising 1.93% as the market digested ongoing news about its self-driving technology advancements. The technology sector, reflecting broader investor confidence, rose by 4.02% today, leading the pack against defensive sectors such as energy, which faltered with a 3.62% decline. In commodities, collapsing crude oil prices, down 14.40% as supply concerns escalate from the geopolitics surrounding Iran, position energy markets in a precarious scenario. Conversely, lean hog futures skyrocketed by 16.34%, reflecting tightness in livestock supply, compelling traders to position ahead of potential shortage-driven rallies. The unusual demand-side dynamics juxtaposed against crumbling energy prices highlight bifurcation within commodity markets that investors should navigate with caution. Our liquidity regime signal points to a tightening environment, with deteriorating momentum (-1.658) and accelerating deterioration (-0.1815). This suggests macro liquidity conditions are deteriorating, a factor influencing the current market dynamics where investors are cautious about growth signals. Today's session data is consistent with our macro regime of "Expansion / Hot / Dovish," although the GDP slowing presents a significant risk. In conclusion, as markets digest the implications of fluctuating growth prospects coupled with continued geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Iran, the tone remains cautiously risk-on. Investors should focus on navigating sectors and commodities distinctly responding to these macro themes while keeping a close eye on upcoming economic data that could further dictate monetary policy and market direction.