• US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 5y yield climbing 5bp (1.28%) to 3.96%, aligning with fear of persistently elevated inflation as seen in breakeven rates. • The Nasdaq Composite outperformed, rallying 1.63%, led by Nvidia (+4.32%) and Amazon (+3.49%), countering broader market volatility. • Brent crude plummeted 6.09% amid supply concerns, sharply contrasting with the bullish sentiment in tech stocks and raising questions about inflation dynamics. **Recommendations** • Consider shorting Brent crude — today's drop may signify a critical turning point in oil pricing dynamics amidst heightened supply concerns. • Look for long positions in high-quality tech equities — Nvidia's performance may indicate increased investment appetite reflecting AI's strategic importance. • Position for a flat yield curve — rising inflation expectations with steady policy rates suggest bonds may face upward pressure. Today's session reflected a complex interplay of macroeconomic signals, with US Treasury yields rising amidst heightened inflation concerns as the 5-year yield rose by 5bp to 3.96%. This yield increase was primarily driven by a significant uptick in 5y5y forward inflation rates, which increased by 11bp to 2.26% (z=+5.07σ), underscoring market fears of sustained inflation. In contrast, the 10-year breakeven inflation also showed a modest increase (+4bp to 2.42%), which generally weighs on bond valuation. The mixed sentiment from the economic calendar, coupled with conflicting news regarding supply dynamics and geopolitical tensions, adds to the uncertainty reflected in these yield movements. The economic calendar today included key releases that did not exacerbate market negativity: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was revised to 48.5 vs. forecasted 48.4, indicating a loss in consumer confidence driven by rising prices and rates. Meanwhile, German Ifo Business Climate came in lower than the previous month, suggesting a cooling sentiment among businesses. However, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model maintains a stable estimate of 1.24% real GDP growth in Q1 2026, which may lend some resilience to the US markets despite broader concerns. In equity markets, the Nasdaq led gains with a 1.63% rise, bolstered by strong performances from mega-cap stocks like Nvidia, which surged 4.32% following positive commentary on its supply chain capacity amidst a growing push towards AI technologies, and Amazon, which gained 3.49%. Positive sentiment in the technology sector stands in contrast to the general risk-off mood elsewhere as the Dow Jones dipped slightly. Other sectors exhibited mixed performance; utilities were up by 2.33%, while the communication services sector retreated by 1.58%. Significant movements occurred in commodities, most notably Brent crude, which fell sharply by 6.09% to $100 per barrel. This stark decline comes amid ongoing supply concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Iran situation. Such fluctuations in energy pricing are pivotal in influencing inflation dynamics and could compel central banks to reassess their tightening paths if sustained. Conversely, palladium rose by 2.21% alongside silver and gold, indicating a flight to safety amid broader commodities volatility. The liquidity regime signal suggests conditions are improving with positive momentum, evidencing a confidence boost among investors despite a mixed economic backdrop. The signal reads at +3.193, indicating expansionary conditions. This improvement is likely tied to tightening credit spreads, supporting ongoing risk-taking in equities, particularly in the tech space where forward-looking sentiment remains bullish despite caution elsewhere. Looking ahead, prediction markets indicate a strong consensus (96.7%) for the Fed maintaining its target rate of 3.50%-3.75% at the upcoming May meeting, further suggesting a cautionary approach despite rising inflation expectations. Upcoming earnings releases from major firms like Amazon on April 26 and others will serve as critical catalysts for market direction, particularly in discerning the impact of the macroscape on individual businesses. In summary, while today’s market activity shows resilience in tech assets amidst troubling inflation signals and geopolitical tension, caution is warranted as moving forward, mixed signals in consumer sentiment and supply concerns cast a shadow on the broader economic outlook. Tone remains cautiously risk-on, but increased volatility across asset classes is likely as inflation dynamics continue to develop.