• Treasury yields saw a broad increase, with the 20-year and 2-year yields each rising by 5 basis points (+1.01% and +1.27%, respectively), amid expectations of continued economic resilience as suggested by strong retail sector performance. • The S&P 500 index closed up 0.80%, driven largely by a rally in tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, which surged +4.32% after positive sentiment surrounding artificial intelligence. • A notable drop in commodities was led by coffee prices which plummeted -7.21% (z-score -5.14σ), highlighting supply and demand imbalances exacerbated by recent weather patterns. **Recommendations:** • Consider opening positions in Nvidia as bullish sentiment around AI continues to drive superior performance in tech stocks. • Look to hedge against inflation through TIPS as breakevens exhibit slight upward movements, suggesting inflation concerns are reigniting. • Monitor agricultural commodity ETFs for potential long entries, especially after the sharp sell-off in coffee, as pricing may stabilize after the recent volatility. As Thursday's trading session unfolded, markets reacted positively to resilience in key sectors, particularly technology, which buoyed major indices. Nvidia's rally by +4.32% was bolstered by amplified investor enthusiasm surrounding AI developments, which also saw technology sector indices rise by +1.63%. Alongside this, macroeconomic sentiment remained entwined with expectations of enduring growth, supported by an increase in key Treasury yields, including the 20-year and 2-year notes — both increasing by +5 basis points. The data signals continual economic momentum, fostering a risk-on tone across equity markets. The economic calendar featured significant retail metrics, including Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures that saw forecasts come in below expectations, with core retail sales rising just +0.5% against a forecast of +0.7%, and retail sales also eking out gains of +0.5% versus a previous +1.7%. However, despite the mixed impression these figures may have left, the broader narrative of sustained consumer spending was taken positively by equity markets Nonetheless, the upward movement in yield curves indicates potential tightening possibilities and suggests investors remain vigilant about underlying inflation pressures. In the corporate bond space, the US CCC corporate yield saw a slight decline of -7 basis points. This modest contraction signals ongoing investor confidence in riskier segments within fixed income, further echoed by the tightening in option-adjusted spreads in investment-grade debt, which could indicate improving risk sentiment. The overall environment remains cautiously optimistic around equities, particularly in the face of rising interest rates, even as credit conditions appear supportive. Meanwhile, the commodities market bore witness to a dramatic sell-off in agricultural assets, particularly in coffee, which decreased by -7.21%. This was an extreme move (z-score -5.14σ) and indicates potential supply concerns due to adverse weather conditions affecting crops. The price actions here emphasize growing volatility and trader sentiment that demand might be weakening, suggesting caution may be warranted in this sector going forward. Similarly, aluminum prices dropped by -5.50% (z-score -4.44σ), aligning with deteriorating demand signals amid fluctuating economic recovery narratives globally. Liquidity conditions, as gauged by our proprietary liquidity regime signal, reflect a deteriorating trend, with momentum decreasing over the past 20 days and acceleration also turning negative. This implies tightening conditions may be influencing market sentiment, as reflected in the cautious theme pervading across asset classes. Investors may need to position defensively as the market navigates these shifting dynamics. Polymarket predictions affirm a balanced outlook on upcoming macroeconomic developments. Market expectations show a robust 96.2% likelihood of the federal funds target range remaining unchanged at 3.50-3.75% in the near future, reflecting stability in monetary policy. However, with GDPNow estimates coming in at 3.52% for Q2 2026 indicating above-trend growth, markets remain on edge about possible shifts in fiscal strategy depending on inflationary indicators for the rest of the month. Thus, while the overall tone remains cautiously risk-on, attention to inflation trends and earnings results from big tech firms will be critical in shaping market expectations. Tracking upcoming economic releases such as the Empire State Manufacturing Index on May 15 might provide further insight into the health of manufacturing and broader economic growth trajectory.